This week I'll be taking a look at recent assertions that antarctic sea ice extent, which is currently not in line with global warming climate models, and examine why this may be, and whether or not it gives us adequate reason to reject the climate change theory. [1]
Recent evidence from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that on Sep 22 2014, Antarctic sea ice went to a record breaking level of 7.76 million sq mi, which is the highest level since records began for sea ice extent. [2]
Unfortunately, while this is certainly actually good news for the planet, it was somewhat bad news for climate scientists, whose models predicted that sea ice should be decreasing, not increasing. However, the article from NASA's Goddard Space Center points out that it's really not practical to expect the entire globe to warm and in other words behave in the same manner. If it did, everywhere would be hot already and we would be in trouble. Thus, extra sea ice, overall, it's not going to destroy the scientific community, and it's not actually much for the skeptical community to go on, either. While the sea ice extent is record breaking, there are several practical ideas for why the ice broke records.
There is also the primary point that while Antarctic ice broke records, Arctic sea ice continues to decline much more rapidly than Antarctic sea ice is gaining. A recent report by NOAA concludes that Arctic sea ice is unlikely to return to it's previous levels. [3]
Another thing that the skeptical sources fail to take into consideration [1] is that continental ice is still receding. [4] The article in citation 4, an article by the Science magazine, says that "The short answer is that while the overall climate is warming, it’s a complicated system..." A reference is also made to melting of the actual continent itself - this freshwater, when melted, has a higher freezing point than the surrounding sea water and is thus more easily frozen. This may seem counter intuitive, but just think about it for the moment: If something freezes at 50 F, and something else freezes at 10 F, it has to be much colder to freeze the material at 10 F. Thus, the material that freezes at 50 F is said to have a higher freezing point. Saltwater has a lower freezing point than freshwater; thus it is harder to freeze.
It is very important to be able to think globally. This can be difficult when most people don't usually think beyond their town or county. Global climate reporting relies on the whole world's temperatures to make accurate assertions about the past, present, and future. Sometimes these models are not entirely accurate, but it in no way makes them wrong. As a case in point, global average temperatures have actually been going up faster than models suggested. Obviously, the models are not perfect, but this does not mean they should be thrown out the window.
While it does seem like this event, which is not in line with climate models, should be shaking the scientific community, it is not. Scientists are well aware of the problems they face in predicting such massive data quantities, they are quite confident about their science. Meanwhile, while the ice on the pond is growing, the ice on the land is still plummeting into the ocean.
While we are worried about individual things that scientists miss that can discredit the scientific community, the reality is that the science behind this is quite solid. Personally, I am more willing to put my weight behind science, rather than cherry picked facts. While scientific skepticism is healthy, and indeed, a mark of the scientific community itself, we no longer believe in things like "the earth is flat," because we have the mountain of data to show that the earth is round. Ish.
References
1. Bastasch, Michael. "Climate FAIL: Antarctic Sea Ice Did The Exact Opposite Of What Models Predicted." Watts Up With That. Watts Up With That, 03 Mar. 2015. Web. 05 Mar. 2015. <http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/03/climate-fail-antarctic-sea-ice-did-the-exact-opposite-of-what-models-predicted/>.
2. "Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum." NASA. NASA, 7 Oct. 2014. Web. 05 Mar. 2015. <https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum/index.html#.VPiU0sbqN6p>.
3. "National Snow and Ice Data Center." Climate Change in the Arctic. NSIDC, n.d. Web. 06 Mar. 2015. <https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_change.html>.
4. Gramling, Carolyn. "What's Going on with Antarctic Sea Ice?" What's Going on with Antarctic Sea Ice? Science, 10 Oct. 2014. Web. 06 Mar. 2015. <http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/10/whats-going-antarctic-sea-ice>.
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